비트코인 상승? 하락? 규제 어디까지? The Bitcoin price outlook is...korea Bitcoin up or down? Where's the regulation?(engsubtitle, korea new translate)

 

 

심리적 지지선으로 기대됐던 5만달러가 붕괴하는 등 연초부터 고공질주하던 비트코인이 주춤하고 있다.

개당 6만5000달러에 육박해 사상 최고가를 찍은 게 불과 지난 14일이다.

한때 5만달러 아래로 떨어졌던 비트코인은 다소 하락세를 회복해 24일 오전 9시 현재 5만1000달러선을 오가고 있다. 

 

Bitcoin, which had been struggling since the beginning of the year, has been slowing down, with $50,000 expected as a psychological support line collapsing.
It was only on the 14th that it reached a record high of $65,000 per unit.
Bitcoin, which once fell below $50,000, has recovered somewhat and has been hovering around $51,000 as of 9 a.m. on the 24th.

비트코인이 낙폭을 쉽게 회복하지 못하는 건 엄격한 규제가 곧 다가오기 때문이라는 분석이 나온다. 다만 비트코인을 포함해 이더리움과 바이낸스코인 등 세계 5대 가상자산 시가총액이 이번 달 2조달러를 넘는 등 가상자산은 이미 통제할 수 있는 수준을 넘어섰다는 의견과 규제는 시간문제라는 시각이 엇갈린다. 
세계 주요국이 겨누는 규제의 칼날, 비트코인은 피할 수 있을까? 개당 가격은 정말 시장 전망치인 1억원까지 갈까?
제도권 편입 기대 커지고, 달러 대체 가능성도 

 

Analysts say that Bitcoin cannot easily recover from the fall because strict regulations are coming soon. However, opinions and regulations that virtual assets have already exceeded the level of control, with the market capitalization of the world's top five virtual assets, including Bitcoin, exceeding $2 trillion this month, are mixed.
Can Bitcoin, the blade of regulation aimed at major countries around the world, be avoided? Will the price per unit really go to the market forecast of 100 million won?
Expectations are growing for institutional inclusion, and the possibility of a dollar replacement.

비트코인은 올 들어서만 120% 올랐다. 상승장이 펼쳐지자 90% 가까이 폭락한 지난 2018년의 악몽이 되풀이되는 게 아니냐는 우려도 심심치 않게 등장했다. 하지만 “그때와는 다르다”는 게 시장의 주된 시각이었다. 개인투자자들이 아닌 기관투자자들, 즉 큰손들이 너도나도 비트코인에 뛰어들어서다. 

 

Bitcoin has risen 120% this year alone. Concerns have also emerged that the nightmare of 2018, which plunged nearly 90 percent as the upward trend unfolded, may be repeated. But "different from then" was the market's main view. This is because institutional investors, not individual investors, jumped into Bitcoin.

일론 머스크 테슬라 최고경영자(CEO)가 대표적이다. 지난달 그는 테슬라가 비트코인을 15억달러어치 사들였다는 사실을 밝히며 “옛날에 사놓지 않은 게 후회된다”며 “비트코인이 금융 투자자들로부터 널리 받아들여지길 기대한다”고 말했다. 

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is representative. Last month, he revealed that Tesla bought Bitcoin worth $1.5 billion, saying, "I regret not buying it in the past. I hope Bitcoin will be widely accepted by financial investors." .

제도권 편입 기대도 커졌다. 테슬라에 이어 세계 최대 사무실 공유업체 위워크도 비트코인을 결제수단으로 도입하는가 하면, 온라인 결제 업체 페이팔과 비자도 비트코인 결제를 허용했다. 가상자산 거래소 코인베이스가 나스닥시장에 데뷔하면서 기대치는 정점을 찍었다. 가상자산 거래소가 처음으로 제도권 시장에 편입되자 상장일인 14일 비트코인 가격은 사상 최고치인 6만4456달러를 기록했다. 

 

Expectations for incorporation into the system have also increased. WeWork, the world's largest office-sharing company after Tesla, also introduced Bitcoin as a payment method, while PayPal and Visa, online payment companies, also allowed bitcoin payments. Expectations peaked when Coinbase, a virtual asset exchange, debuted in the NASDAQ market. Bitcoin prices hit an all-time high of $64,456 on the 14th, the day of listing, when the virtual asset exchange was first incorporated into the institutional market.

한술 더 떠 비트코인이 달러를 대체할 수 있다는 주장도 나왔다. 페이팔 공동창업자 피터 틸은 지난 7일 비트코인이 모든 통화를 위협하지만 특히 미 달러화를 위협하는 상황이라고 분석했다. 

 

Furthermore, some argued that Bitcoin could replace the dollar. PayPal co-founder Peter Till analyzed on the 7th that Bitcoin threatens all currencies, but especially the U.S. dollar.  

재닛 옐런 미 재무장관이 비트코인 규제 초안을 준비 중인 것으로 전해졌다  

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reportedly preparing a draft Bitcoin regulation

그러나 비트코인을 향한 기대감 만큼 반작용도 함께 늘었다. 

지난 1940년대 이후 영국 파운드화를 밀어내고 수십 년간 지배적인 기축통화 역할을 해 온 달러 패권을 지키기 위해 미국은 경계를 늦추지 않고 있다. 

 

However, reaction has increased as much as expectations for Bitcoin.
The U.S. remains vigilant to push the British pound away since the 1940s and protect the dollar hegemony, which has been the dominant key currency for decades.

제롬 파월 미 연방준비제도(연준·Fed) 의장은 2017년 지명될 당시부터 현재까지 비트코인에 한결같이 회의적인 입장이다. 그는 지난달 “투기적 자산으로서의 가상자산은 달러보다는 금의 대체품에 가까울 것”이라며 달러 지위를 넘볼 가능성에 선을 그었다. 비트코인 등 가상자산은 달러처럼 가치 저장 기능이 있는 화폐라기보다는 투자나 투기 대상인 금과 비슷하다는 설명이다. 

 

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), has been uniformly skeptical of Bitcoin since his nomination in 2017. Last month, he drew a line on the possibility of surpassing the dollar's status, saying, "Virtual assets as speculative assets will be more like gold replacements than dollars." It is explained that virtual assets such as Bitcoin are similar to gold, which is subject to investment or speculation, rather than currency that has a value storage function like the dollar.

재닛 옐런 미 재무장관도 연일 비트코인에 대한 비판 수위를 높이고 있다. 옐런 장관은 비트코인 잠재력이 높다는 사실을 인정하면서도, 익명성을 바탕으로 테러나 돈세탁에 쉽게 쓰이고 있다고 지적한다. 최근에는 채굴부터 거래까지 에너지 소모가 과도하다는 비판도 추가됐다. 줄곧 당국이 개입할 수 있다는 의지를 내비쳐온 그는 비트코인을 규제할 초기 가이드라인을 준비하는 것으로 알려졌다. 비트코인 결제가 여러 방면에 도입되고 있어 규제가 필요하다는 판단에서다.

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is also raising criticism of Bitcoin every day. While acknowledging the high potential for Bitcoin, Yellen points out that it is easily used for terrorism and money laundering based on anonymity. Recently, criticism has been added that energy consumption from mining to trading is excessive. He, who has been expressing his willingness to intervene by authorities, is reportedly preparing initial guidelines to regulate Bitcoin. Bitcoin payments are being introduced in many ways, so regulations are needed.

“불법화도 가능” vs “건드리기에 너무 커져”

"It's possible to outlaw" vs. "It's too big to touch."

일각에선 비트코인 소유 자체를 불법화할 수도 있다는 관측이 나온다. 세계 최대 헤지펀드인 브릿지워터 어소시에이츠의 창업자이자 억만장자 투자자인 레이 달리오는 지난달 CNBC에 “각국의 중앙은행들은 통화정책을 독점하기 원하기 때문에 비트코인은 결국 불법화될 것”이라고 전망했다. 전례도 있다. 1930년대 대공황 당시 현금과 채권이 투자대상으로서 매력이 떨어지자 사람들은 금에 몰렸고, 화폐 공급과 수요를 통제하고자 하는 재무당국이 아예 금을 못 사게 막았다. 비트코인에도 이와 비슷한 일이 충분히 일어날 수 있다는 게 달리오의 설명이다.

 

Some observers say that Bitcoin ownership itself may be illegal. Ray Dalio, founder and billionaire investor of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, told CNBC last month, "Bitcoins will eventually become illegal because central banks in each country want to monopolize monetary policy." There is also a precedent. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, when cash and bonds became less attractive as investment targets, people flocked to gold, and financial authorities trying to control the supply and demand of money prevented them from buying gold at all. Dalio explains that similar things can happen enough to Bitcoin.

물론 반론도 있다. 정부가 규제하기에는 가상자산 규모가 이미 너무 커졌다는 주장이다. 지난 1월 사임한 브라이언 브룩스 전 미국 통화감독청(OCC) 청장 대행은 “가상자산 규제 폭풍이 지나갔을 수 있다”며 2조달러를 넘어선 시장 규모는 정부와 규제당국이 더이상 가상자산을 통제할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다고 말했다. 핀테크 신문인 FIN의 편집장인 제임스 레드베터도 “비트코인 규제에 대한 우려가 있긴 하지만 각국 정부나 중앙은행이 힘을 합쳐도 실제 비트코인을 금지할 수는 없을 것 같다”고 예측했다.

 

Of course there are objections. They argue that the size of virtual assets has already grown too large for the government to regulate. "The virtual asset regulatory storm may have passed," said Brian Brooks, former acting U.S. Monetary Supervisory Service (OCC), who resigned in January, adding that the market size exceeding $2 trillion means that the government and regulators can no longer control virtual assets. James Redbetter, editor-in-chief of Fin, a fintech newspaper, also predicted, "There are concerns about Bitcoin regulations, but even if governments or central banks work together, they will not be able to ban actual Bitcoin."

그럼에도 불구하고 가상자산 규제 움직임은 곳곳에서 포착되고 있다. 최근 유럽 규제당국은 세계 최대 가상자산 거래소인 바이낸스를 조사하고 있다. 바이낸스가 출시한 ‘증권형 토큰’이 기업 공개와 투명성을 관리하는 증권법을 준수하고 있는지 들여다보겠다는 것이다. 터키에서는 중앙은행이 나서 가상자산을 결제 수단으로 쓰지 못하게 하는가 하면, 인도 정부는 가상자산을 소유만 해도 벌금을 매기는 법안을 준비 중이다. 

 

Nevertheless, virtual asset regulation movements are being captured everywhere. Recently, European regulators are investigating Binance, the world's largest virtual asset exchange. It aims to look into whether the "securities token" released by Binance complies with securities laws that manage corporate disclosure and transparency. In Turkey, the central bank is preventing the use of virtual assets as a means of payment, while the Indian government is preparing a bill to fine virtual assets just for owning them.

한국도 예외 없다. 정부가 가상자산 투자를 투기로 보고 있으며, 투자자도 보호 대상이 아니라고 선을 그었다.

지난 22일 은성수 금융위원장은 국회에서 “가상자산에 투자한 이들까지 정부에서 다 보호할 수는 없다”며 오는 9월 상당수 가상자산 거래소가 폐쇄될 수 있다고 경고했다. 

 

Korea is no exception. The government views virtual asset investment as speculation, and drew the line that investors are not protected.

On the 22nd, Eun Sung-soo, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, warned the National Assembly that many virtual asset exchanges could be closed in September, saying, "The government cannot protect all those who have invested in virtual assets."

비트코인 가격 전망은 

The Bitcoin price outlook is...

규제 움직임 속 비트코인 가격이 단기적으로는 반토막날 수 있다는 전망이 나온다. 

가상자산 낙관론자인 스콧 마이너드 구겐하임파트너스 최고투자책임자(CIO)는 CNBC에 “비트코인 가격에 거품이 끼었다”며 개당 2만~3만달러까지 떨어질 수 있다고 말했다. 다만 과열된 가격이 조정을 통해 제자리를 찾아가는 과정이며, 장기적으로는 비트코인이 40만~60만달러까지 갈 수 있다는 것이 그의 전망이다.

 

Some predict that bitcoin prices could be halved in the short term amid regulatory moves.

Scott Minor, chief investment officer (CIO) of Guggenheim Partners, a virtual asset optimist, told CNBC, "Bitcoin prices are bubbling," and could fall to $20,000 to $30,000 per unit. However, he predicts that the overheated price is in the process of finding its place through adjustment, and that Bitcoin can reach 400,000 to 600,000 dollars in the long term.

5만달러선이 깨지긴 했지만 비트코인은 여전히 연초 대비 63% 넘게 올랐다. 또한 채굴량이 정해진 탓에 거래소가 보유한 비트코인 물량이 줄어들어 상승세가 아직 끝나지 않았다는 분석도 있다. 

빌 밀러 밀러밸류파트너스 창업자, 21일 CNBC에 “비트코인에 거품이 없다고 확신한다”며 “앞으론 수요와 공급의 역동성에 따른 추가 상승이 기대된다”고 말했다.

 

Although the $50,000 mark was broken, Bitcoin still rose more than 63% from the beginning of the year. There is also an analysis that the upward trend is not over yet because the amount of Bitcoin held by the exchange has decreased due to the fixed amount of mining.

Bill Miller, founder of Value Partners, told CNBC on the 21st, "I'm sure Bitcoin doesn't have bubbles," and "In the future, we expect further increases due to the dynamics of supply and demand.